Inside the Labor Market Simulation Baseline Model — supporting data-driven workforce policy
This publication showcases our collaboration with the United Arab Emirates’ Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratization (MOHRE) to develop a comprehensive Labor Market Simulation Baseline Model. The initiative supports national efforts to strengthen workforce planning and future talent development by introducing a structured, data-driven approach to understand how labor market trends evolve over time.
The handbook outlines the overall design of the model, its purpose, and how it brings together economic indicators, labor demand and supply dynamics, and international benchmarks to support better policy decisions. It also explains the key concepts behind labor market forecasting and presents the framework used to simulate how changes in the economy may influence employment, skills needs, and workforce outcomes.
Our contribution focused on building the model’s structure, developing its forecasting logic, and preparing practical tools that policymakers can use for analysis, planning, and scenario testing. The publication serves as a guide for users to understand the model’s foundation, its potential applications, and how it can help governments make more informed, forward-looking labor market policies.
So how did we get here, and what must change to rebuild the value of a degree?